Modelling Infrastructure Interdependencies and Socio-economicImpacts of Disruptions Caused by Extreme Events: Literature Review and R&D Challenges

[摘要] The potential for widespread and catastrophic impacts of extreme events, including those related to climate change effects, has never been greater in society than today. Rapid urbanization does not only mean higher concentrations of population and economic activities in urban areas, but also increasing complexity and infrastructure interdependencies in the delivery of critical urban services such as energy, water, transport and communication. This report reviews the current literature in these areas and identifies critical research and development (RD) challenges from the perspective – and for the benefit – of key stakeholders, considering the primary decision goals and contexts. From this vantage point, a critical evaluation framework is proposed including a classification of disruptions and extreme events and an overview of infrastructure modelling and simulation approaches, and broader socio-economic impact assessment methods. Mapping the modelling and assessment methods against different decision-making contexts, critical gaps in knowledge and tools are identified to support the latter. Deep uncertainties characterize the challenge as each major component of the information chain – from the frequency and intensity of a disruptive event, to assessing the first order and immediate impacts of an infrastructure failure, to estimating the nature, extent and impact of cascading failures – multiplies the uncertainties. Emerging research challenges on possible strategies to deal with these interdependencies and uncertainties are discussed.

[发布日期] 2014-06-30 [发布机构] CSIRO

[学科分类] 地球科学(综合)