Transport greenhouse gas emissions projections 2013-2050

[摘要] The CSIRO was commissioned by the Department Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (the Department) to provide annual projections of emissions and activity for the transport sector highlighting total emissions from 2009-10 to 2049-50.The modelling is conducted using a combination of top town approaches in the case of rail and marine transport and a partial equilibrium model covering road and aviation. The partial equilibrium model is called the Energy Sector Model (ESM) and covers the Australian energy sector. The ESM contains nine road vehicle categories including buses, trucks and passenger vehicles. The ESM was developed by CSIRO and ABARE in 2006. Since that time CSIRO has continued to develop ESM. The model has an economic decision-making framework based around the cost of alternative fuels and technologies.Demand for transport activities were developed from MMRF which is a general equilibrium model used by the Department of the Treasury (the Treasury). The outputs from CSIRO’s models were used as an input back into MMRF. The iteration process continued until demand and supply broadly converged.The scenarios examined in this modelling process were:- Central policy scenario - Assumes a world with a 550 ppm stabilisation target and an Australian emission target of a 5 per cent reduction on 2000 levels by 2020 and an 80 per cent reduction by 2050- Low price scenario - The same as the central scenario except that the stabilisation target is reached at a later date such that the carbon price is initially lower but converges by 2030- High price scenario - Assumes a world with more ambitious global action and an Australian emission target of a 25 per cent reduction on 2000 levels by 2020 and an 80 per cent reduction by 2050- No carbon price scenario - the same global context as the central scenario except that Australia does not participate and there is no domestic carbon price.The modelling indicates that the transport sector has significant capacity to reduce their emission intensity in the period to 2050 through higher fuel and task efficiency and adoption of lower greenhouse gas emission intensive fuels. However, the measures are generally not sufficient to offset the growth in passenger and freight demand of around 150 to 250 per cent, varying by State and transport mode. Consequently transport sector emission are flat to higher by 2050 under all scenarios (Figure 1-1).Additional modelling of sensitivity cases finds that:- Mandatory efficiency standards could increase abatement in the central policy scenario by 3MtCO2e by 2020;- Higher or low oil prices would also have a significant impact on projected greenhouse gas emissions;- Bringing forward the timing of the shift to an emission trading scheme has negligible impact on transport sector greenhouse gas emissions; and- Excluding the heavy road sector from carbon pricing is projected to result in transport sector emission being 14.5 percent or 12 MtCO2e higher by 2050.

[发布日期] 2013-09-11 [发布机构] CSIRO

[效力级别] Economic Models and Forecasting [学科分类] 地球科学(综合)