Assessing linkages between regional economic indicators and CSG industry activity in NSW 2001-2011

[摘要] This report documents the assessment of the statistical associations between CSG industry activity and regional economic indicators observed in New South Wales during the periods 2001–2011. It is based on econometric analysis of income and sectoral employment dynamics in regions which experienced CSG activity (treatment group) relative to regions without CSG wells (control group). The treatment group in our analysis includes twenty-four rural regions which each had at least two wells drilled during the period 2000–2011. The control group is composed of 114 rural regions with population density distributions similar to those observed in the treatment group in 2001. Treatment and control regions have similar average socioeconomic and environmental characteristics. The report is one milestone within a larger ‘baseline’ project which was developed in response to stakeholder demand to establish a point of comparison in case of any potential future CSG industry activity in NSW.Spatiotemporal income fluctuations are influenced by multiple environmental, institutional and socioeconomic parameters. To control for some of those factors we used spatially explicit information on variables that influence farm income returns (e.g. soil characteristics, topography, and climate). Time series data of parameters related to the productivity of human capital (e.g. work experience, education) and non-CSG mining revenue (coal prices and non-CSG wells) were also included in the analysis. We applied statistical methods (spatial panel regressions with random effects) to control for spatially dependent unobserved factors.Everything else constant, CSG regions had 6.47% and 6.31% higher median personal and family income than regions in the control group, on average. These results were statistically significant at the 5% level. The estimated income effect is independent of the influence of other factors associated with changes in rural income patterns (e.g. changes in agricultural profitability, differences in human capital productivity, and changes in the prices of minerals). These findings are consistent with assessments of the income effects of the CSG construction phase in Queensland. In contrast, we did not find statistically significant linkages between CSG industry activity and indirect employment variations in NSW’s CSG regions. We emphasise that the estimated models are a reduced-form representation of the complex interlinkages that drive income and employment patterns. The statistical results in this report only indicate associations between the treatment (CSG activity) and the assessed economic outcomes (median income level and indirect employment) under the modelling assumptions applied. A causal inference analysis could help to better approximate the economic effects of the CSG industry in the study region.The statistical models generated in this report will be used to project future levels of CSG activity under alternative scenarios. The data used in this study was obtained from open access sources and the methods are well documented in the spatial econometric literature. This provides a transparent basis to replicate the analysis.

[发布日期] 2017-10-27 [发布机构] CSIRO

[效力级别] Econometric and Statistical Methods [学科分类] 地球科学(综合)