Are you ready for change? Farsight for construction: Exploratory scenarios for Queensland's construction industry to 2036

[摘要] The future of work and employment is a global hot topic with interconnected and powerful forces shaping jobs, industries and entire economies.Farsight, prepared in partnership with Construction Skills Queensland, examines the future of construction work in the state. Specifically, the report discusses critical trends and alternative scenarios for the future of Queensland’s construction workforce. Eighty leading experts across the state contributed to this future through a range of thinking and participation in interviews and workshops - where they considered what the industry could look like in 2036, and how job profiles and skills requirements might changeto align with that future. A comprehensive scan of trends impacting the industry was undertaken, 25 of which are discussed in this report.This industry input and trends scan culminated in the development of four scenarios (Figure 1) that capture key areas of uncertainty and impact for jobs and skills in the industry.Each scenario is possible and takes the reader down an evidence-based journey about a plausible future. Because the future is not exact, there are multiple paths leading to multiple scenarios. Our scenarios describe a range of futures - some we would like to happen or others we would like to avoid. The aim in scenario planning is to be objective and inform decision-makers to identify, select and implement optimal strategies to achieve a better future -for all involved.Farsight was designed to help the industry understand what could happen in the future, and to identify what future(s) the industry wants and what steps could be taken to move toward desired futures.The scenarios were defined using a strategic foresight process that involves the identification of two spectrums that capture a range of plausible outcomes. The end points are extreme possibilities, with each relatively independent of the other. The outcomes of Farsight rests upon a set of trends compiled and synthesised by the research team. Crossing the axes defines the scenario space and the fourscenarios which detail the tools we will need to keep stay nimble, relevant and effective in a global market.Task automation - the horizontal axisThe horizontal axis relates to the extent of task automation. Both end points see a world more technologically advanced than today; the distinction is based on the extent of task automation. On the limited end, automation has followed an incremental path of development. Jobs are still recognisable from today’s perspective, but digitaltechnology is assisting workers and tradespeople with day-to-day communications, and project and workflow management. The substantial end imagines an industry transformed by smart robots and advanced manufacturing. Many of today’s jobs are obsolete, and new jobs in robotics, programming and design have emerged.Innovation culture - the vertical axisThe vertical axis relates to the extent of the industry’s innovation culture, or the values and assumptions that shape whether new ideas will be embraced or resisted. As with the horizontal axis there is a degree of innovation at both end points. However, the approach to innovation activities varies considerably. At the cautious end point, risk aversion across the industry and market shapes a culturethat is wary of radically new materials, methods, tools and practices: ‘tried and true’ is the mantra of the day. The bold end point sees the industry pushing to be at the leading edge of construction innovation, responding proactively to the big challenges facing cities and the built environment.From the two axes there are four scenarios (Figure 1). These four scenarios represent a generalisation of a much more complex array of future possibilities. As with any model, scenarios must simplify a more complex reality in order to inform decisions.There are futures in which the landscape for the construction industry in Queensland is substantially reshaped and barely recogni...

[发布日期] 2016-07-27 [发布机构] CSIRO

[学科分类] 地球科学(综合)