efuture sensitivity analysis 2013

[摘要] efuture.csiro.au is an internet site where users can explore Australia’s electricity future through to 2050 (Figure 1). It provides a snapshot of the complex modelling CSIRO carries out every day to support government and industry as they make decisions about energy investment and policy.Based on CSIRO's energy sector model, you can select options and instantly view charts showing changes to Australia’s projected electricity sources, greenhouse gas emissions and the cost of electricity.Because efuture is designed to be a free public tool, it mostly uses public data such as electricity technology costs and demand projections from various energy institutions (e.g. Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics; Australian Energy Market Organisation). Such data has typically been developed through a stakeholder review processes and is therefore often the best available. However all such data will eventually become out of date or miss some new information so that it does not always reflect the very latest industry views.efuture was first posted to coincide with the release of the Australian Government’s Energy White Paper in 2012. The tool is now updated once or twice a year as more up to date data is released.One of the most powerful aspects of efuture is that it provides access to approximately 1300 pre-modelled sensitivity cases. The cases are selected by selecting from the drop down menus of items such as fuel costs or electricity demand (Figure 2).Results for each case can only be viewed one at a time. The purpose of this report is to provide users of efuture with a summary of the full range of sensitivity cases. When efuture results are viewed as a cluster of sensitivity cases, it can provide powerful insights about the ranges of future possible electricity technology mixes, prices and emissions and how those ranges correspond to the various key input assumptions.In order to provide some perspective on the sensitivity case results discussion which follows this report first describes the default scenario, which is a selection of mid-range scenario assumptions. In the sensitivity cases discussion we focus on each of the main scenario menu options and outputs, plus a few other outputs of interest such as how the total investment costs and renewable shares. We explore how these outputs differ across the full range of efuture sensitivity cases.

[发布日期] 2013-06-26 [发布机构] CSIRO

[效力级别] Energy Generation, Conversion and Storage Engineering [学科分类] 地球科学(综合)