Modelling the Future Grid Forum scenarios

[摘要] This report provides the detail behind the scenarios explored by the Future Grid Forum and how they were modelled. The quantitative analysis in this report has been used to support the discussion and conclusions of the Future Grid Forum which are published separately in Change and choice. Besides exploring scenarios and developing policy and technological options for public debate, a key objective of the Future Grid Forum was to develop credible, whole of system modelling of the electricity sector.In the past decade electricity futures have been modelled in increasingly finer detail by more and more sophisticated models. Electricity sector modelling has received a large amount of resources and in-depth treatment for three reasons. The first is because electricity assets are expensive and long lived so it is an essential to understand more about what futures the assets will be operating in. The second is that Australia’s National Electricity Market commenced in 1998 and so there was a need for companies to have tools in which to strategise their involvement in this new competitive wholesale electricity market environment. The third key driver of the last decade has been the need to understand how the sector can transform, under different policy settings, to meet the long term goal of substantial greenhouse gas emissions reduction.Given this focus, it is understandable that the vast majority of modelling resources have been targeted at the generation sector. However, more recently given the majority of retail electricity price increases originated outside the generation sector, it has been clear that other parts of electricity supply chain need equal attention to understanding their operation and future changes. Indeed, the approach presented in this report is whole of electricity system modelling. This approach fundamentally recognises that one cannot optimise electricity sector outcomes without studying the whole system.In the next section of this report we explain what is meant by a whole-of system modelling approach. The scenarios are then outlined. General and scenario specific model assumptions follow and we conclude with modelling results and appendices.

[发布日期] 2013-12-06 [发布机构] CSIRO

[学科分类] 地球科学(综合)