Engaging farmers on climate risk through targeted integration of bio-economic modelling and seasonal climate forecasts

[摘要] We carried out this research to engage farmers in the south India project region on climate risk using seasonal climate forecasts (SCF). SCF are probabilistic in nature and hence unless translated to more direct actions that are part of an understood portfolio of farm management options, have low utility among farmers in agricultural decision making. While SCF have utility as an important source of climate information in managing climate risk, demystifying the probabilistic climate forecasts is important to value establishing their utility in agricultural decision making. We developed a multiple goal linear programming model that integrates seasonal climate forecasts to develop ‘what-if?’scenarios. The crop choice model was developed in a participatory engagement process with farmers in a south Indian case study village. Technical coefficients for the model include all the crop inputs, labour use, costs and prices. Seasonal climate forecasts for of the start for of the growing season were integrated as weights in the optimisation. The key findings of this study are that it is possible to integrate probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into a ‘what if?’ scenario development for farmer engagement using a multiple goal linear programming model. We have engaged with researchers, extension service providers and farmers in the case study using the model and have had encouraging feedback that this model can be used as a discussion support tool to discuss communicate climate risk in a quantitative manner.An easy- to- use interface helps researchers and extension operators to modify this model to suit a different set of agro-climatic and social-economic situations – the model is not intended at this stage to be used directly by farmers.

[发布日期] 2015-07-01 [发布机构] CSIRO

[学科分类] 地球科学(综合)