Assessing the economic effect of CSG activity under different scenarios in NSW

[摘要] This is the final report of the ‘Analysing Economic and Demographic Trajectories in NSW Regions Experiencing CSG Development’ Project. The report details the methods for calculating future benefits and impacts under different scenarios for the CSG industry in NSW and presents the outcomes from each scenario.The economic research underpinning the method was presented in Milestone 3 which presented a historic analysis of the economic impact that the emerging CSG industry had on rural NSW regions during the period 2001–2011. Milestone 3 report demonstrated that during this early phase of the industry regions experiencing CSG industry activity had 6% higher median weakly incomes than regions without CSG activity (Marcos-Martinez et al 2017).In this Final report, we have developed projections which use the same core economic modelling as Milestone 3, but rather than look back at measuring past effects, we look forward to consider what could happen under different hypothetical scenarios.This final report concludes that, if industry exploration and production activity were to decline, then the historically observed income effects presented in milestone 3 would disappear. By contrast, if the industry were to proceed at the average of drilling to around 660-800 wells by 2035, then regions with CSG activity would be expected to have approximately 6-7% higher incomes than regions without CSG activity. This scenario provides a potential reference point for the proposed Narrabri Gas project in NSW which, if it were to proceed as planned, would likely involve around 850 new wells.Finally, if the gas industry were to develop at the maximum observed annual drilling rate for the State, then the income effect would be expected to increase slightly to around 7-8% higher than non-CSG regions.

[发布日期] 2017-12-12 [发布机构] CSIRO

[学科分类] 地球科学(综合)