Bangladesh Integrated Water Resources Assessment, supplementary report: The economics of climate change in Bangladesh

[摘要] Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Temperatures are projected to rise implying greater crop evapotranspiration and in many cases, reduced yields. Sea level rise will reduce arable land supply and increase storm surges and saline intrusion in coastal areas. Increased surface water inflows and greater monsoonal precipitation will increase flooding. Impacts on agriculture will be determined by the availability of agricultural land, how precipitation may compensate for increased evapotranspiration, the carbon dioxide fertilization effect, and the potential to increase irrigation.The Government of Bangladesh aspires to offer its people a comparable standard of living to that of middle-income countries by 2021. Since Independence in 1971, achieving food security has been a national priority (Faisal, Islam,Saila, 2004; Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, 2006). Bangladesh’s population is increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.29% and will reach 247 million by 2050 (BIDS, 2013b). Gross domestic product is projected to grow on average at 7.9% (BIDS, 2013a). With increasing population, greater demand for resources and climate change impacts, careful planning and adaptation strategies will be required for agricultural output to meet growing food demand. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to explore climate change impacts on Bangladesh’s economy and food security. Focusing on the access pillar of food security, we apply the direct caloric intake approach in our estimation.We found climate change impacts on macroeconomic indicators were relatively small, with climate change reducing GDP by -0.327% by 2050 or by $304,160 million taka. By 2030, all but the urban uneducated household category (which experienced a 26% caloric deficit) had access to sufficient calories to meet their minimum requirements. On the whole, climate change reduced aggregate household caloric consumption by 8% in 2030 and by 6% in 2050. While overall Bangladesh is likely to produce enough food to satisfy its caloric requirements by 2050, some will still go hungry due to both inter and intra-household distribution of food. Evidence generated here can guide policy responses to ensure economic growth contributes to meeting national development and food security targets.

[发布机构] CSIRO

[学科分类] 地球科学(综合)