Decision making under uncertainty: strategy for using irrigation water vs underground water

[摘要] The decision on investing in which water resources is affected by the large degree of uncertainty in future rice price, irrigating water price, and in the case of using underground water, the uncertainty about future watertable level in the ground (particularly if underground water is depleted due to excessive consumption by the local community). Given these uncertainties, it is not straightforward to decide on which approach would provide the more efficient or higher-value development programs.Specifically, the investment decision on water supply for rice farming is to choose: 1) installing wells and pumping underground water onsite owned by the farmer (and the associated capital works and buying pumps), or 2), buying water directly from another irrigation source on the market.The objective is to select a more profitable way of using water resources to produce rice, and once the selection of water resources is made, the program will be in place for the subsequent 10 years.

[发布日期] 2012-09-30 [发布机构] CSIRO

[学科分类] 地球科学(综合)