Climate Scenarios for the Philippine Climate Change Adaptation Project (PhilCCAP)

[摘要] Downscaled projections of future climate for the Philippines show a wide range of changes in temperature and rainfall. It is important note that emissions make a significant difference to the amount of climate change projected to be experienced by the end of the century. Climate changes under a lower emissions scenario are likely to be similar in character, but lower in magnitude, than under the high emissions scenario. The multi-model median or mean changes are presented, along with the 10th and 90th percentiles in order to capture the spread among the model projections. This will provide some measure of confidence in the projections.The Regional Climate Model (RCM) used in this study was CSIRO’s Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). The two-step method used to generate the high-resolution regional climate simulations is known as dynamical downscaling. First, data from the Global Climate Models (GCMs, approximately 200 km resolution) are used as input into CCAM run globally at finer resolution (50 km). Then data from this simulation are used as input into the high-resolution simulation (25 km over the Philippines).CCAM is a variable-resolution model, which means it can be run globally on an even grid or on a stretched grid with high resolution over the area of interest. In the projections generated here, only sea surface temperature and sea ice information from CMIP5 GCMs were used as inputs. These inputs were corrected to more realistically match the current climate.CCAM simulations were completed for a continuous period from 1970-2100. Two sets of projections were completed, using two of the most recent IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 4.5 (intermediate level of emissions) and RCP 8.5 (high emissions).This report summarises the results generated using this data in order to help PAGASA provide regional climate projections.It describes the procedures used to generate the various data and presents some of the results in graphic form.The results present the various risks associated with various climate change indices, with confidence levels presented using the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile change values among the model results

[发布日期] 2015-10-13 [发布机构] PAGASA

[学科分类] 地球科学(综合)