Sensitivity analysis of modelling of light vehicle emission standards in Australia

[摘要] The Climate Change Authority (CCA) recently released Reducing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions - Targets and progress review draft report and is currently in the process of finalising the review, with a final report to be released in early 2014 (CCA, 2013).To build on the analysis of emissions reduction opportunities in the transport sector, the CCA commissioned CSIRO to examine the potential of fleet-average new light vehicle carbon dioxide emission standards for Australia (‘emission standards’), as implemented in most major automotive markets in the world.A key goal of the analysis is to quantify the emissions reduction potential of emission standards with respect to two key design features of the standard - the rate of improvement in emissions imposed and the timing of commencement of the standards. All other factors are held constant. The sensitivity analysis is modelled using the No carbon price scenario as the reference scenario (CCA, 2013).This sensitivity study applies CSIRO’s Energy Sector Model (ESM) to model the response of the road transport sector to the emission standards. ESM was previously applied to model the No carbon price scenario, together with other carbon price scenarios, in Reedman and Graham (2013) as one of several modelling inputs to CCA (2013).The CCA have designed the emission standards sensitivity cases based around a step up in the expected improvement in new light vehicle emissions levels in the absence of standards as a low bound, and the European Union (EU) emission standards for the upper bound. The trajectories, including their timing and required rate of improvement in emissions are shown in Figure 1-1. The trajectories are forced to converge towards a likely achievable standard in 2030-2040.The projected outcomes for greenhouse gas emissions from the implementation of minimum average emission standards on new light vehicles are significant reductions in transport sector greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 1-2). There are clear differences in the ‘Early’ and ‘Late’ commencement sensitivity cases followed by a degree of convergence from around 2035 onwards. By 2050, light vehicle greenhouse gas emissions are around 40 Mt for the sensitivity cases compared to 60 Mt in the No carbon price scenario reference case - a reduction of one third due to the emission standards.The modelling assumes that some vehicle changes implemented to meet the emission standards would be supplied by vehicle manufacturers at no real increase in the cost of vehicles whilst others, particularly in relation to vehicle electrification would require considerable additional cost. Under these assumptions, in the long run, the cost of travel is projected to be slightly lower, but not significantly different from the reference case as fuel savings offset assumed additional vehicle costs. No strong conclusion should be drawn from this projected change in cost, given the uncertainty in the assumptions, unless supported by other modelling evidence from Australia or similar vehicle markets.

[发布日期] 2013-12-01 [发布机构] CSIRO

[效力级别] Economic Models and Forecasting [学科分类] 地球科学(综合)