Comparison of prediction performance of AWRA-L with other models

[摘要] This study assesses the ability of the most recent version of the AWRA-L model (version 3.5) to predict streamflow across Australia and compares its performance with those of several other models and modelling methods.AWRA-L is implemented as a globally-calibrated model.That is, its Australia-wide streamflow predictions are generated using a single set of model parameters.These parameters are obtained by finding the best fit to streamflow in a set of 302 gauged calibration catchments. Model predictions are then evaluated by applying this global parameter set in an independent set of 305 gauged validation catchments.The peer models against which AWRA-L is compared, use one of two modelling approaches.The first approach uses a global calibration and validation procedure that is identical to the one employed for AWRA-L.In the second approach, the models are calibrated separately on each of the 302 calibration catchments to yield 302 separate sets of model parameters.Evaluation of model performance is then done by modelling each of the 305 validation catchments using the parameter set from the geographically nearest calibration catchment.The global calibration procedure compares predictions of the Sacramento and GR4J models against those of AWRA-L.The local calibration procedure compares predictions from the same two models, together with a third model, Springsim, against the predictions of the globally-calibrated AWRA-L.The model intercomparisons show that in the validation catchments, AWRA-L typically provides streamflow predictions that are as good as or better than the alternatives.Furthermore, it does not suffer from some of the peer models’ drawbacks such as spatial discontinuities in streamflow generation and performance deterioration with increasing regionalisation distances.In comparison to other models, AWRA-L also has other advantages such as the ability to predict many landscape properties and fluxes other than streamflow.It is also the only model among those tested that has been explicitly coupled to groundwater and river routing modules.Comparison against the results of a previous model benchmarking study highlights the substantial improvements in the streamflow predictions of AWRA-L that have been achieved in the past three years.In the light of these findings, it is recommended that AWRA-L continues to be used to support the production of the National Water Accounts and Australian Water Resources Assessments.

[发布日期] 2013-06-30 [发布机构] CSIRO

[学科分类] 地球科学(综合)