Database of CMIP5 climate change projections across south Asia

[摘要] Climate change will impact water and related sectors. Temperature and potential evaporation will be higher. Changes in future precipitation will be amplified in the river flows. Security of watersupply will be compromised due to longer and more severe droughts, more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, increased seasonality of river flow and retreat of glaciers. Flood risk willincrease due to more intense heavy precipitation events.This report describes the SDIP climate change database, which Specifically, the database presents ‘empirical scaling factors’ for 0.5o grids (~ 50 km) that reflect changes in six climate variables(precipitation, heave precipitation, potential evaporation, average daily temperature, maximum daily temperature and minimum daily temperature) for a future (2046-2075) period relative to current. Changes are presented for each of the 12 months, 4 seasons and annual values. These are presented for each ensemble modelling run from each of the 42 CMIP5 GCMs, as well as the median and range (uncertainty) of plausible projections.This database therefore provides consistently derived projections for climate change impact modelling in the SDIP projects in the various basins and for hydrological modelling across South Asia to inform water management, planning and development, and their interactions with the energy and food sectors, to improve livelihoods in the region. A complementary report (Charles et al., 2015) provides an overview of the various climate change projections and basin and regional modelling studies across South Asia.

[发布机构] CSIRO

[学科分类] 地球科学(综合)