Representativeness of Single Lidar Stations for Zonally Averaged Ozone Profiles, Their Trends and Attribution to Proxies

[摘要] The paper is focusing on the representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profile variations over the middle and upper stratosphere. From the lower to the upper stratosphere, ozone profiles from single or grouped lidar stations correlate well with zonal means calculated from Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) satellite overpasses. The best representativeness with significant correlation coefficients is found within ±15 degrees of latitude circles north or south of any lidar station. The paper includes also a multiple linear regression analysis on the relative importance of proxy time series for explaining variations in the vertical ozone profiles. Studied proxies represent variability due to influences outside of the earth system (solar cycle), as well as within the earth system i.e. dynamic processes (the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)), those due to volcanic aerosol (Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)), and to the tropopause height changes (including global warming) and those due to manmade contributions to chemistry (Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC)). Ozone trends are estimated, with and without removal of proxies, from the total available 1980 to 2015 SBUV record. Except for the chemistry related proxy (EESC) and its orthogonal function, the removal of the other proxies does not alter the significance of the estimated long-term trends. At heights above 15 hPa an “inflection point” between 1997 and 1999 marks the end of significant negative ozone trends, followed by a recent period between 1998-2015 with positive ozone trends. At heights between 15 hPa and 40 hPa the pre-1998 negative ozone trends tend to become less significant as we move towards 2015, below which the lower stratosphere ozone decline continues in agreement with findings of recent literature.

[发布日期] 2018-05-07

[学科分类] 地质物理学

[关键词] AEROSOLS;EL NINO;GLOBAL WARMING;OPTICAL RADAR;OZONE;QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION;REGRESSION ANALYSIS;SOLAR BACKSCATTER UV SPECTROMETER;SOUTHERN OSCILLATION;STRATOSPHERE;TIME SERIES ANALYSIS