Assessing GEO and LEO Repeating Conjunctions Using High Fidelity Brute Force Monte Carlo Simulations

[摘要] Probability of collision (P(sub c)) estimates for Earth-orbiting satellites typically assume a temporally-isolated conjunction event. However, under certain conditions two objects may experience multiple high-risk close approach events over the course of hours or days. In these repeating conjunction cases, the P(sub c) accumulates as each successive encounter occurs. The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team has updated its “brute force Monte Carlo” (BFMC) software to estimate such accumulating P(sub c) values for repeating conjunctions. This study describes the updated BFMC algorithm and discusses the implications for conjunction risk assessment.

[发布日期] 2019-08-11

[学科分类] 统计和概率

[关键词] ALGORITHMS;COLLISIONS;EARTH ORBITAL ENVIRONMENTS;LOW EARTH ORBITS;MISSION PLANNING;MONTE CARLO METHOD;PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS;PROBABILITY THEORY;RISK ASSESSMENT;SATELLITE TRACKING;STATE VECTORS