Model Uncertainty in Cloud-Circulation Coupling, and Cloud-Radiative Response to Increasing CO2, Linked to Biases in Climatological Circulation

[摘要] Recent analyses of global climate models suggest that uncertainty in the coupling between mid-latitude clouds and the atmospheric circulation contributes to uncertainty in climate sensitivity. However, the reasons behind model differences in the cloud-circulation coupling have remained unclear. Here, we use a global climate model in idealized aquaplanet setup to show that the Southern Hemisphere climatological circulation, which in many models is biased equatorward, contributes to the model differences in the cloud-circulation coupling. For the same poleward shift of the Hadley circulation (HC) edge, models with narrower climatological HCs exhibit stronger mid-latitude cloud-induced shortwave warming than models with wider climatological HCs. This cloud-induced radiative warming results predominantly from a subsidence warming that decreases cloud fraction and is stronger for narrower HCs because of a larger meridional gradient in the vertical velocity. A comparison of our aquaplanet results with comprehensive climate models suggests that about half of the model uncertainty in the mid-latitude cloud-circulation coupling stems from this impact of the circulation on the large-scale temperature structure of the atmosphere, and thus could be removed by improving the climatological circulation in models. This illustrates how understanding of large-scale dynamics can help reduce uncertainty in clouds and their response to climate change.

[发布日期] 2018-11-27

[学科分类] 大气科学

[关键词] CARBON DIOXIDE;ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION;CLIMATE MODELS;CLOUDS (METEOROLOGY);BIAS;RADIANT HEATING;ERRORS