Determining Appropriate Risk Remediation Thresholds from Empirical Conjunction Data Using Survival Probability Methods

[摘要] Satellites sometimes maneuver before conjunctions to remediate the risk of an on-orbit collision. Many missions use probability of collision (P(sub c)) thresholds to decide when such maneuvers should be performed. These thresholds tend to be conservative because of policies that require satellites survive their lifetimes without collision with high confidence (e.g., 99.9%). This study presents a semi-empirical method to estimate remediation P(sub c) thresholds that satisfy such lifetime risk requirements. The formulation combines survival probability analysis with empirical conjunction histories to estimate remediation thresholds as a function of satellite size, remaining on-orbit duration, lifetime collision probability limit, collision consequence, and other parameters.

[发布日期] 2019-08-11

[学科分类] 统计和概率

[关键词] COLLISIONS;PROBABILITY THEORY;SURVIVAL;RISK ASSESSMENT;CONJUNCTION;SATELLITE COMMUNICATION;SPACECRAFT MANEUVERS;SPACE DEBRIS;MISSION PLANNING;STATISTICAL ANALYSIS