Forecasting the U.S. Season-Average Farm Price of Upland Cotton: Derivation of a Futures Price Forecasting Model

[摘要] A forward-looking futures price-based model is developed that assists in forecasting upland cotton’s season-average price (SAP) received by farmers. The SAP impacts resources devoted to cotton production, marketing, and manufacturing, and forecasts inform these decisions. A series of models are developed to generate alternative monthly SAP forecasts.

[发布日期] 2018-09-27 [发布机构] United States Department of Agriculture

[学科分类] 农业科学（综合）

[关键词] upland cotton;season-average farm price forecasts;futures-adjusted forecast model;futures prices;basis;marketing weights