The Brazilian electricity market : small hydropower strategic planning

[摘要] In 2013, Brazil had the 9th largest electricity generation in the planet, while having the 3rd largest hydroelectric generation (BP Global, 2015). Having more than 70% of its installed capacity coming from hydropower puts Brazil in a great position in terms of reduced environmental impact on electricity generation. However, it also creates a large supply dependency on weather, water flows and reservoirs. In the last 2-3 years, the country has been undergoing an intense drought - the largest since the early 1950;;s. Such drought caused hydropower plants to deliver significantly less energy than expected, which led to a sudden and lasting surge on the price of the Megawatt-hour. With a unified electricity system with a single national operator, Brazil has been able to maintain the supply in sufficient levels. However, as it would be expected in a free market, the drought has drawn attention of a large number of investors. This thesis analyzes the current electricity market situation, showing from basic concepts to a landscape overview. Furthermore, it also explores Small Hydropower investments, including the different portfolio choices that investors may make and have recently made. Such analyses provide a good understanding of the impact of different variables and levers on the present value of revenues generated by such plants, as well as on the risk profile of the investment.

[发布机构] Massachusetts Institute of Technology