Subjective–objective hybrid weighting and cloud model for operational risk quantification of integrated transmission–distribution systems

[摘要] In the context of the emerging power system, the coordinated operation of transmission and distribution networks has been continuously enhanced, resulting in increasingly complex power flow distributions and significantly greater challenges in risk identification and prevention. To address these issues, this paper proposes an operational risk assessment method for transmission and distribution networks based on a combined weighting approach and a cloud model. First, considering the risk evolution characteristics of transmission and distribution networks, a multidimensional risk evaluation index system is constructed to comprehensively characterize the system operating state. Second, two complementary weighting methods are adopted to determine index weights: the Order Relation Analysis method (G1), a subjective weighting technique that derives weights from expert-determined importance ranking of evaluation indicators; and the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation method (CRITIC), an objective weighting approach that quantifies indicator importance by integrating data variability and inter-indicator correlation. A combined weighting scheme is then employed to fuse the two sets of weight information, thereby enhancing the scientific rationality of weight allocation. On this basis, a cloud model-based risk assessment framework is developed, which realizes the deep integration of qualitative risk description and quantitative numerical analysis. In this framework, qualitative expert judgment and risk grading criteria provide physical constraints for quantitative modeling, while the quantitative calculation of cloud characteristics in turn supports precise risk level identification, thus effectively capturing the fuzziness and randomness inherent in power system operation. Finally, a case study is conducted using simulated data from the operation of a regional transmission–distribution network. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively evaluate the operational security level of transmission and distribution networks, accurately identify weak links and potential risk factors, and provide reliable support for power grid dispatch optimization and risk prevention decision-making.

[发布日期] 2026-09-26

[关键词] Transmission and distribution networks;Risk assessment;Combined weighting;Cloud model