Effectiveness of control and preventive measures influenced by pathogen trait evolution: Example of Escherichia coli O157:H7

[摘要] The main goal of the present work is to reassess the effectiveness of environmental decontamination (ED) and antimicrobial drug administration (ADA) by taking into account pathogen trait evolution within and between the hosts. To achieve this goal, we construct a multi-strain disease transmission model with cross immunity and intermittent shedding, where transmission occurs via environmental and host reservoirs. The ecology of infection is investigated by establishing conditions for stability and existence of equilibria. Using the stability results, it is demonstrated that pathogen trait evolution neutralizes or diminishes the effectiveness of ADA and ED. Specifically, first the model is fitted to the prevalence data of Escherichia coli O157:H7 on a dairy farm. Then the effectiveness of ADA and ED is explored under four hypothesized cases of pathogen trait evolution. It is shown that excessive implementation of ADA or ED can result in pathogen traits capable of destabilizing the disease free equilibrium and establishing stable multi-strain or single-strain endemic equilibria. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[发布日期] 2019-12-15

[效力级别]  Proceedings Paper

[关键词] Pathogen trait evolution;Drug administration;Intermittent shedding;Free-living pathogen;Multi-strain model