Impact of bacterial hyperinfectivity on cholera epidemics in a spatially heterogeneous environment

[摘要] In this work, we develop a new modeling framework to study the impact of bacterial hyperinfectivity on cholera epidemics in a spatially heterogeneous environment. Our model is built on a reaction-advection-diffusion system to represent spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera transmission, and incorporates bacterial hyperinfectivity and spatial heterogeneity. Firstly, we define the basic reproduction number R-0 and establish the global threshold dynamics based on R-0. Secondly, the global attractivity of the unique endemics equilibrium is discussed when the spatial environment is homogeneous and waning cholera immunity, advection and intrinsic growth of bacteria are ignored. Thirdly, the dependence of R-0 on model parameters are numerically investigated. The theoretical results are obtained for some specific cases. Our result highlights the importance of hyperinfectivity and its interplay with spatial heterogeneity. Particularly, our findings indicate ignoring hyperinfectivity may underestimate the risk of infection. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[发布日期] 2019-12-15

[关键词] Hyperinfectivity;Cholera epidemics;Heterogeneous environments;The basic reproduction number;Threshold dynamics