Contribution of wind power and CHP to exports from Western Denmark during 2000-2004

[摘要] The experience of Denmark is used by the United Kingdom's anti-wind lobby to demonstrate that intermittency and inaccuracies in wind forecasting make wind power ineffective and expensive. A further assertion is that most of the power is 'unwanted' since up to 80% of it is exported. Here, available data for Danish energy production for 2000-2004 is used to assess the link between wind generation and exports and test the validity of these claims. Net exports in Western Denmark showed good correlation with wind production. However, they were more significantly correlated with the production from local combined heat and power (CHP) plants. In order to test the 80% export claim, a simple technique was devised to correlate and rank hourly net exports and generation from wind and local CHP. In the case where net exports were primarily attributed to (or blamed on) wind, 44-84% of annual wind production was deemed to be exported, with wind 'causing' 57-79% of net annual exports. For this extreme scenario, the percentage values are in line with those of critics. However, under the opposite extreme scenario in which exports are attributed to local CHP, 77-94% of exports were caused by CHP and only 4-32% of wind production was exported. Overall, this study shows that there is some degree of correlation between net exports and wind power, but that the claim that 80% is exported is unwarranted since it ignores the demonstrably stronger influence of local CHP. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[发布日期] 2007-12-01

[关键词] exports;combined heat and power;Denmark;wind power