Random phylogenies and the distribution of branching times

[摘要] Phylogenetic trees reconstructed without fossils have become an important source of information to study evolutionary processes. A widely used method to describe patterns of phylogenetic diversification is known as the lineages-through-time (LTT) plot. Recently, it has been shown that it is possible to predict the distribution of the branching times of a phylogeny, thus making possible to derive a theoretical LTT curve conditioned on diversification parameters. Here, I review some aspects related to this prediction showing how to derive it for any time-dependent model of diversification, as well as calculating a prediction interval around a theoretical LTT curve. The accuracy of the prediction interval was assessed with simulations using fixed or random tree sizes under constant-rate models as well as two models of time-dependent diversification. The prediction intervals were relatively narrower and more accurate for larger trees. The features of this approach are discussed as well as its potential applications. (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

[发布日期] 2015-12-21

[关键词] Diversity;Extinction;LTT plot;Speciation