We are back again! What can artificial intelligence and machine learning models tell us about why countries knock at the door of the IMF?

[摘要] This paper examines the factors that predict an IMF bailout. In doing so, we use a large dataset from 1993 to 2021 with 6550 observations and 138 features and adopt recent advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence models such as tree-based, boosting and artificial neural network techniques. We find that apart from traditional indicators such as debt and macroeconomic factors; agricultural, energy, health and social factors are strong predictors of an IMF bailout. These factors have hitherto not received much attention in the literature.

[发布日期] 2023-11-01

[关键词] ECONOMIC-GROWTH;PROGRAMS