Can Statistics Predict the Fields Medal Winners?

[摘要] With the upcoming ICM in Rio de Janeiro, the seasonalspeculation about who will receive the 2018 Fields Medals at the opening ceremony is once more in full swing.With the big data industry measuring us in all possible ways, a natural question might be whether statistical approaches could possibly predict the committee’schoice of the Fields Medallists. We undertake someexperiments here to see which predictions are providedby standard approaches based on data from zbMATHand linked data sources.