Is the Banker a Myth?

[摘要] The actions of the anonymous banker in the highstake television gambling programme Deal or No Deal is examined. If a model can successfully predict his behaviour it might suggest that an automatic process is employed to reach his decisions. Potential strategies associated with a number of games are investigated and a model developed for the offers the anonymous banker makes to buy out the player. This approach is developed into a selection strategy of the optimum stage at which a player should accept the money offered. This is reduced to a simple table, by knowing their current position players can rapidly arrive at an appropriate decision strategy with associated probabilities. These probabilities give a guide as to the confidence to be placed in the choice adopted.

[学科分类] 土木及结构工程学

[关键词] Deal or No Deal;Discriminant Analysis;Probability Game Show