Empirical Likelihood Ratio Test for the Epidemic Change Model

[摘要] Change point problem has been studied extensively since 1950s due to its broad applications in many fields such as finance, biology and so on. As a special case of the multiple change point problem, the epidemic change point problem has received a lot of attention especially in medical studies. In this paper, a nonparametric method based on the empirical likelihood is proposed to detect the epidemic changes of the mean after unknown change points. Under some mild conditions, the asymptotic null distribution of the empirical likelihood ratio test statistic is proved to be the extreme distribution. The consistency of the test is also proved. Simulations indicate that the test behaves comparable to the other available tests while it enjoys less constraint on the data distribution. The method is applied to the Standford heart transplant data and detects the change points successfully.

[学科分类] 土木及结构工程学

[关键词] Consistency;empirical likelihood ratio;epidemic change point