Consumer value of fuel choice flexibility - a case study of the flex-fuel car in Sweden

[摘要] PurposeThis paper examines the value of fuel choice flexibility derived from a flex-fuel engine.MethodBased on the stochastic properties of fuel prices, we use Monte-Carlo simulation in order to value the option to switch fuel.ResultsOur findings indicate a considerable value of fuel choice flexibility, ranging between 7,500 and 37,800 SEK, depending on the underlying stochastic process we assume that fuel prices follow. This can be compared to the state subsidy of 10,000 SEK provided until recently for buying a flex-fuel car.ConclusionCompared to an environmentally friendly pure ethanol strategy, the switching strategy is considerably less costly, about 2,000–19,000 SEK depending on the assumed underlying stochastic process, a fact that is important to take into consideration with environmental policy.

[发布日期] 2013-06-26

[关键词] Real option analysis;Flex-fuel car;Mean-reversion;Geometric Brownian motion;H23;L92