Modelling travel time distribution under various uncertainties on Hanshin expressway of Japan

[摘要] PurposeStudying travel time distribution or variability in travel time is very much useful in travel time reliability studies of transportation system. The properties of this distribution are described by various uncertainties which are derived from supply side, demand side and other external factors of any road network.MethodPresent study investigates the development of stochastic response surface of travel time variation under uncertain factors of traffic volume and intensity of rain fall by using Stochastic Response Surface Method (SRSM).Analysis and ResultsThis model was applied to a section of Kobe Route (Nishnomiya to Awaza), Hanshin expressway, Japan. Besides hourly traffic volume data, incident data for the entire year 2006 were collected and multiple linear regression analysis for entire year data was initially performed to know the functional and significance relation between the input and output variable. Further SRSM analysis has been carried out for working days data. Results shows that travel time distribution obtained using SRSM model is better than distribution obtained by the regression model.ConclusionIt was observed from the results that SRSM model is efficient for analyzing the stochastic relation between the response variable and uncertain explanatory variables.

[发布日期] 2013-07-31

[关键词] Stochastic response surface method;Travel time distribution;Hanshin expressway