Strategic scenarios of global logistics: what lies ahead for Europe?

[摘要] IntroductionThe current global crisis and other socio-economic and political events highlight the need for a better understanding of future (medium/long term) developments in transport and logistics systems and networks worldwide in a context of sustainability. Quite surprisingly, although transport and logistics are rather relevant sectors in global growth and trade, literature on future scenarios of logistics systems, identifying potential agents of change and forecasting new trends in global patterns of medium/long term logistics flows, turns out to be quite limited. While purely quantitative forecasts of logistics parameters and variables are easily available from a variety of sources, we found that studies using qualitative and strategic approaches in the building of future scenarios are mostly developed for sectors other than logistics and transportation (e.g., manufacturing). Therefore there is the need to address the issue of scenario-building in the field of global logistics through an efficient strategic method. Although few studies (the most relevant being Lapide’s MIT SC2020 Project: Supply Chains Futures) have thus far adopted it, the Strategic Planning Approach (SPA) provides just such methodology.MethodsThe paper seeks to fill this gap by employing a quali-quantitative methodology based on the SPA to provide a number of macro medium term scenarios in the field of global logistics and assessing the impacts on the European area. Following a comprehensive literature review, a preliminary grid of main drivers of change is derived to be presented for focus groups analyses. The groups are representative of both supply and demand perspectives within the global logistics sector.ResultsThe analyses are conducted in a semi-structured interviews format where a number of strategic scenarios for global logistics are built – each scenario defined in terms of a combination of strategic drivers. In particular, results show how a specific model at the macro level – Symmetric Global Logistics Model (SGLM) – will be likely to prevail on a global scale, in which two fundamental sub-components (local/global) will play a determinant role. The impact of the SGLM is then strategically assessed with regards to European logistics systems.ConclusionIn conclusion, Europe is likely to face a strengthening of both its logistics and industrial capabilities – though at a different pace of development with respect to emerging economies – in a context in which North African and Eastern European markets will play a fundamental role in production-logistics platforms.

[发布日期] 2012-01-08

[关键词] Global logistics;Logistics networks;Scenario-building;Network design