Using high precision climate data for wildfire risk assessment

[摘要] The present study is focused on examining the changes of key weather parameters using detailed daily data for the period 1985-2021 in an area of interest situated in Rila mountain in Bulgaria which is a territory that is prone to wildfires. Using this long-term horizon, the research defines the main climate factor trends and relates them with real events of wildfires by using the Angström index and statistical methods with focus on outlining specific weather conditions that indicate fire risk. As a result, the Angström index was proven to be a reliable source for determining the potential weather conditions for fire occurrence in the area of interest, part of protected area BG0000496 Rilski manastir. Low relative humidity was identified as the main factor influencing fire occurrence in the reviewed real wildfire events. Specific range and behavior of the key weather parameters, influencing wildfire occurrence were detected. These findings could be a good source of information when elaborating a forest fire prevention system and may help for appropriate prioritization of factors and management of resources.

[学科分类] 植物学

[关键词] wildfires;Angström index;climate change;climate data;Rilski Manastir protected area