Opportunities for and barriers to anticipatory governance of two lake social–ecological systems in Germany and Canada

[摘要] 1. Climate change effects are already being felt around the globe, and governancesystems need to adapt to this new reality to foster greater resilience in social–ecological systems (SES). Anticipatory governance is a concept proposed for sucha purpose. However, its definition remains rather vague in the literature, as is itspractical use for decision makers. In this paper, we contribute to filling these twoshortcomings.2. First, we conducted a systematic literature review of the concept and derivedthe following main criteria: foresight, networked engagement, integration andfeedback. Second, we use the identified criteria to analyse two social–ecologicalsystems around lakes in Lower Saxony, Germany and in Quebec, Canada.3. In both cases, data were generated using a participatory approach (interviewsand workshops) with local stakeholders. We examined these data, identifying opportunities and barriers to anticipatory governance. Our findings support, withempirical data for the first time, the claim in the literature that ensemble-ization—the fact that all anticipatory governance criteria must be put forward jointly andnot in isolation—is a facilitator for the emergence of anticipation.4. Furthermore, by highlighting opportunities and barriers to anticipatory governance within two temperate lake SES cases, we illustrate how to understand agiven system's limitations with respect to anticipatory governance, as well ashow to engage with the concept through concrete, already existing opportunities. The proposed course of actions could help design more anticipatory governance systems to support decision-making processes that could enhance SESresilience.

[学科分类] 护理学

[关键词] anticipatory governance;feedback;foresight;networks;social–ecological systems;systematic review;temperate lakes