Climate-dependent propagation of precipitation uncertainty into the water cycle

[摘要] Precipitation is a crucial variable for hydro-meteorological applications. Unfortunately, rain gauge measurements are sparse and unevenly distributed, which substantially hampers the use of in situ precipitation data in many regions of the world. The increasing availability of high-resolution gridded precipitation products presents a valuable alternative, especially over poorly gauged regions. This study examines the usefulness of current state-of-the-art precipitation data sets in hydrological modeling. For this purpose, we force a conceptual hydrological model with multiple precipitation data sets in > 200 European catchments to obtain runoff and evapotranspiration. We consider a wide range of precipitation products, which are generated via (1) the interpolation of gauge measurements (E-OBS and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) V.2018), (2)  data assimilation into reanalysis models (ERA-Interim, ERA5, and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis – CFSR), and (3) a combination of multiple sources (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation; MSWEP V2). Evaluation is done at the daily and monthly timescales during the period of 1984–2007. We find that simulated runoff values are highly dependent on the accuracy of precipitation inputs; in contrast, simulated evapotranspiration is generally much less influenced in our comparatively wet study region. We also find that the impact of precipitation uncertainty on simulated runoff increases towards wetter regions, while the opposite is observed in the case of evapotranspiration. Finally, we perform an indirect performance evaluation of the precipitation data sets by comparing the runoff simulations with streamflow observations. Thereby, E-OBS yields the particularly strong agreement, while ERA5, GPCC V.2018, and MSWEP V2 show good performances. We further reveal climate-dependent performance variations of the considered data sets, which can be used to guide their future development. The overall best agreement is achieved when using an ensemble mean generated from all the individual products. In summary, our findings highlight a climate-dependent propagation of precipitation uncertainty through the water cycle; while runoff is strongly impacted in comparatively wet regions, such as central Europe, there are increasing implications for evapotranspiration in drier regions.

[学科分类] 妇产科学