Modeling seasonal variation for mosquito-borne disease in the tropical monsoon environment

[摘要] Mosquitoes play an important role in the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. Considering the sensitivity of mosquitoes’ aquatic stage to the seasonal shift, in this paper, we present a seasonally forced mosquito-borne epidemic model by incorporating mosquitoes’ aquatic stage (eggs, larvae, and pupae) and seasonal shift factor, which is a periodic discontinuous differential system. Firstly, some sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a disease-free solution are obtained. Further, we define the basic reproduction number$\mathcal{R}_{0}$ , and obtain the stability of the disease-free solution when$\mathcal{R}_{0}$ is less than one. And, if$\mathcal{R}_{0}$ is greater than one, the mosquito-borne disease is uniformly persistent and the model admits a positive periodic solution. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the main theoretical results. In addition, simulation results also imply that ignoring the effects of seasonal succession can overestimate or underestimate mosquito-borne disease trends.

[学科分类] 航空航天科学

[关键词] Mosquito-borne disease;Seasonal variation;Periodic solution;Stability and persistence