Seismic landslide hazard assessment of central seismic gap region of Himalaya for a M w 8.5 scenario event

[摘要] In this study, seismic landslide hazard analysis is performed for central seismic gap (CSG) region of Himalaya for a future scenario earthquake of magnitude (Mw) 8.5. Initially, PGA values are estimated by using stochastic finite fault seismological model. Further, the PGA values along with slope displacement prediction equation are used to estimate the Newmark’s sliding displacement. Monte Carlo simulations are performed by considering uncertainties in the material properties. Finally, the hazard map in terms of the probability of slope displacement (DN) value exceeding the threshold values of 5 cm is presented. The probability value varies between 0.1 and 1 and high probability in higher Himalayas highlights the possibility of huge number of co-seismic landslides in this region. The developed seismic landslide hazard map will help local authorities and planners with tools for assessing the seismic landslide risk associated with the use of land and taking necessary measures to minimize the damages.

[学科分类] 地球科学(综合)

[关键词] Co-Seismic landslides;Central seismic gap (CSG);Scenario earthquake;Landslide hazard assessment;Monte Carlo simulations