Why global warming went missing since the year 2000

[摘要] Over the period January 2004 to present, the seas have experienced the lack of any warming, as finally properly measured in the ARGO project where a global array of more than 3,600 free-drifting profiling floats has measured the temperature of the upper 2000 m of the sea as it was not possible before. The warming of the seas has been a negligible 1.1*10 -3 °C/year on average over the layer 0 – 2000 dbar below the accuracy of the measure. Over the period January 2000 to present, the measured land and sea temperatures of the less reliable GISS, NCDC and HADCRUT4 data sets have shown a small warming of 4.2*10 -3 °C/year on average. Same period, the climate models propose for the land and sea temperatures an unrealistic warming of 20.5*10 -3 °C/year (average of CMIP3) and 18.2*10 -3 °C/year (average of the CMIP5). The “inconvenient truth” is that climate models are predicting a warming when there is no warming rather than simply overestimating the warming as discussed so far. The paper presents the failed validation of the climate models since their introduction and suggests the reasons of their failure in the overrated effect of the changed composition of the atmosphere and the neglected natural oscillations.

[关键词] climate change;temperature records;measurements;simulations