Risk Factor Analysis and Nomogram Construction for Non-Survivors among Critical Patients with COVID-19

[摘要] The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, occurred in China in December 2019. This disease has caused more than 70,000 deaths worldwide. We intend to analyze the risk factors of death and establish a prognosis nomogram for critical patients with COVID-19. We analyzed the clinical data of COVID-19 patients in Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University who were in the critical state before March 20, 2020. Data were collected on admission and compared between survivors and non-survivors and analyzed by univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. Finally, 104 patients were included, 50 of whom died. Age (odds ratio, OR 5.73 [95% confidence interval, CI, 1.14–28.81]), chest tightness (OR 5.50 [95% CI, 1.02–9.64]), AST (OR 6.57 [95% CI, 1.33–32.48]), and blood urea nitrogen (5.59 [95% CI, 1.05–29.74]) at admission were considered predictors of the risk of death in critical patients and were selected to construct the nomogram. Subsequently, we established a nomogram model and validated it. The sensitivity and specificity of the nomogram were 96.0% and 74.1%, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.893 (95% CI, 0.807–0.980).

[学科分类] 传染病学