Validation of short- and long-term demographic forecasts using the Canadian Cystic Fibrosis Registry

[摘要] National cystic fibrosis (CF) data registries track patient characteristics over time and have provided insight into both emerging trends and current clinical needs. In a recent study, BURGEL et al. [1] utilised the flow method, a demographic model that predicts future trends in populations, and forecasted a 50% increase in the Western European CF population by 2025, with the adult population experiencing the largest increase. BURGEL et al. [2] subsequently used the French registry to validate short-term predictions; however, the accuracy of longer term projections has not been assessed. The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of short- and long-term flow method projections for the number of patients living with CF using an external data source.

[学科分类] 呼吸医学