Correlation and causality: a COVID-19 conundrum

[摘要] I read with interest the two contributions by J.D. Chalmers and co-workers to the July issue of the European Respiratory Journal. In a reply to correspondence concerning the inhaled corticosteroid withdrawal controversy in COPD [1], they suggest that A. Agusti succumbs to the fallacy of post hoc, ergo, propter hoc [2], i.e. A occurred, then B occurred: therefore, A caused B. However, as we know, correlation is not causality. Yet, in their original research article, LONERGAN and CHALMERS [3] perpetrate the same error in spades. They use the trajectory of deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from around the world to estimate the consequences of easing lockdown measures. They assume the current fall in the rate of COVID-19 related mortality is a consequence of lockdown; but is it? There is much we do not know about the virus, but if it behaves like other coronaviruses then there will be a marked seasonal variation [4]. Did Europe recover because sumer is icumen in?.

[学科分类] 呼吸医学