Bayesian Forecasting of Dynamic Extreme Quantiles

[摘要] In this paper, we provide a novel Bayesian solution to forecasting extreme quantile thresholds that are dynamic in nature. This is an important problem in many fields of study including climatology, structural engineering, and finance. We utilize results from extreme value theory to provide the backdrop for developing a state-space model for the unknown parameters of the observed time-series. To solve for the requisite probability densities, we derive a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter and, most importantly, a computationally efficient, recursive solution. Using the filter, the predictive distribution of future observations, conditioned on the past data, is forecast at each time-step and used to compute extreme quantile levels. We illustrate the improvement in forecasting ability, versus traditional methods, using simulations and also apply our technique to financial market data.

[学科分类] 陶瓷学

[关键词] extreme value theory;quantile forecasting;particle filter;risk-management;value-at-risk