Proposing a rigorous empirical model for estimating the bubble point pressure in heterogeneous carbonate reservoirs

[摘要] Bubble point pressure is of great significance in reservoir engineering calculations affecting the success of reservoir simulation. For determining this valuable parameter, experimental tests are the most reliable techniques; however, these measurements are costly and time-consuming. So, it is crucial to propose an empirical model for estimating bubble point pressure. The existing correlations mainly have large errors and develop based on restricted database from a specific geographical location. As a result, development of an all-inclusive correlation is essential. In current article, gene expression programming (GEP) was used to create a generalized model for bubble point pressure estimation. To do this, an all-inclusive source of data was utilized for training and testing the model from the petroleum industry. Several statistical approaches including both illustration tools and diverse error functions were utilized to show the supremacy of the developed GEP model. Consequently, the recommended model is the most accurate as compared to the similar correlations in literature with the average absolute relative error (AARE = 11.41%) and determination coefficient (R 2 = 0.96). Furthermore, the solution gas-oil ratio shows to be the most influencing variable on determining bubble point pressure according to sensitivity analysis. The results of contour map analysis demonstrate that most portions of the experimental region are predicted via the GEP equation with fewer errors as compared to two well-known literature correlations. Finally, the proposed GEP model can be of high prominence for accurate bubble point pressure estimation.

[关键词] Bubble point pressure;gene expression programming;correlation;sensitivity analysis;comprehensive error analysis