A contrast-enhanced-CT-based classification tree model for classifying malignancy of solid lung tumors in a Chinese clinical population

[摘要] Background: To develop and validate a contrast-enhanced CT based classification tree model for classifying solid lung tumors in clinical patients into malignant or benign.Methods: Between January 2015 and October 2017, 827 pathologically confirmed solid lung tumors (487 malignant, 340 benign; median size, 27.0 mm, IQR 18.0–39.0 mm) from 827 patients from a dedicated Chinese cancer hospital were identified. Nodules were divided randomly into two groups, a training group (575 cases) and a testing group (252 cases). CT characteristics were collected by two radiologists, and analyzed using a classification and regression tree (CART) model. For validation, we used the decision analysis threshold to evaluate the classification performance of the CART model and radiologist’s diagnosis (benign; malignant) in the testing group.Results: Three out of 19 characteristics [margin (smooth; slightly lobulated/lobulated/spiculated), and shape (round/oval; irregular), subjective enhancement (no/uniform enhancement; heterogeneous enhancement)] were automatically generated by the CART model for classifying solid lung tumors. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and diagnostic accuracy of the CART model is 98.5%, 58.1%, 80.6%, 98.6%, 79.8%, and 90.4%, 54.7%, 82.4% 98.5%, 74.2% for the radiologist’s diagnosis by using three-threshold decision analysis.Conclusions: Tumor margin and shape, and subjective tumor enhancement were the most important CT characteristics in the CART model for classifying solid lung tumors as malignant. The CART model had higher discriminatory power than radiologist’s diagnosis. The CART model could help radiologists making recommendations regarding follow-up or surgery in clinical patients with a solid lung tumor.

[学科分类] 呼吸医学

[关键词] Pulmonary nodules;classification tree model;prognosis;lung cancer