A glimpse into the future of esophageal carcinoma in the United States: predicting the future incidence until 2040 based on the current epidemiological data

[摘要] Background: Esophageal carcinoma is the sixth most common cause of death worldwide. With the changing paradigm of esophageal carcinoma, we sought to estimate the future burden of esophageal carcinoma by histology, age, sex, and race, which could help plan prevention, control, and treatment strategies for this cancer. Methods: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 14 registries were utilized to obtain incidence data from 2000 to 2016. We applied age-period-cohort models to estimate future esophageal carcinoma incidence rates and the estimated disease burden by multiplying incidence forecasts by corresponding US Census population projections. Results: 65 years (−4.6% per year). Conclusions: 65 years) in 2040.

[学科分类] 肿瘤学

[关键词] Prediction;esophageal adenocarcinoma;esophageal squamous cell carcinoma;smoking