Application of Specific Prediction Methods in the Process of Criminological Forecasting

[摘要] The mission of criminology is not only to describe, explain and interpret the existing ones,but it must also anticipate a closer and more distant future. The value of criminologicalknowledge is determined by its accuracy and completeness, as well as the timeliness,which provides the prerequisites for making decisions without time constraints.The development of reliable forecasts of crime, usable for making the highest decisionsand effective practical measures, requires not only correct and comprehensive analysisof the prognostic background that causes its development, but also the most effective useof current methodological instrumentation of forecasting.

[关键词] Security;Crime;Predicting;Specific Methods;Criminological Forecasting