Is there a shelf with spare GPs coming to the rescue?

[摘要] Where are the GPs going to come from? With every grim pronouncement on the dwindling number of doctors in the NHS it seems that we need to recruit an army of GPs to sustain the primary care workforce. The future looks glum; in even the best-case projected scenario, the expected primary care shortfall by 2030/2031 is 1200 full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs. The pessimists among you may want to know about the worst-case scenario that dishearteningly suggests a GP shortfall of 18 900 FTE GPs by 2030/2031.1Charlie Massey, Chief Executive of the General Medical Council (GMC), tells us ‘there is no ready-made batch of GPs waiting to be plucked off the shelf to ease the pressures on the workforce’, and again, recommends changes to the GP performers list to allow the increasing numbers of specialty and association specialist (SAS) and locally employed (LE) doctors to work in general practice.2Massey is clearly looking at the increasing numbers of SAS doctors (the fastest growing proportion of the medical workforce)3 and the dwindling GP workforce, and is trying to do some fancy maths to offset the shortfall.In the bookcase of doctors coming to the rescue of general practice, what are the different shelves, and how can they contribute to ease pressures on the workforce?THE BOTTOM SHELF — GP TRAINEES, RETURNERS, AND INTERNATIONAL GPs The first and most traditional route of creating a GP is by training them through the GP specialty training. The numbers of doctors accepted onto the GP training scheme has increased steadily since 2014, with a recruitment total almost doubling from 2671 to 4032 trainees in 2022.3 This shelf of incoming GPs is weighed down by the significant time and cost investment in their training, and the numbers of trainees would need to increase significantly to meet projected shortfalls.Various attempts are being made to bring GPs back into practice through return to work and international recruitment programmes. The Return to Practice and International Induction programmes offer a supported pathway for GPs to return to practice after a career break or those trained internationally to practice in the UK. I struggled to find the numbers of GPs completing these programmes and then entering practice, though Health Education England should have this information available (should anyone want to complete a Freedom of Information request). This shelf, perhaps, fits the brief of having ‘ready-made’ GPs, but whether there are enough to be plucked off and set forth into practices is unclear and probably unlikely.

[学科分类] 卫生学