Construction of the passenger rail traffic generation model

[摘要] The article presents a new approach to building a passenger rail traffic generation model. It uses data on the number of passengers at stations and railway stops obtained from the databases of operators on the rail transport market through the Office of Rail Transport – market regulator – combined with data on the model of the area around the station built based on population, number of beds, individual motorization and gross domestic product (GDP). This enabled analyzing the potential of railway traffic generation at a very detailed level. The article presents a methodology for building a passenger rail traffic generation model and verification of this model based on limited variables describing railway stations and stops as well as traffic zones and available statistical data. The model takes into account three segments of the railway market: regional, interregional and inter-agglomeration transport. The results of these analyzes can be used to increase the accuracy and the reliability of rail traffic models used in the analysis of transport networks.

[学科分类] 建筑学

[关键词] railway traffic;traffic generation model;regression analysis;traffic forecasting;passenger traffic