Technical note: Modeling spatial fields of extreme precipitation – a hierarchical Bayesian approach

[摘要] We introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model for thespatial distribution of rainfall corresponding to an extreme event of aspecified duration that could be used with regional hydrologic models toperform a regional hydrologic risk analysis. An extreme event is defined ifany gaging site in the watershed experiences an annual maximum rainfallevent and the spatial field of rainfall at all sites corresponding to thatoccurrence is modeled. Applications to data from New York City demonstratethe effectiveness of the model for providing spatial scenarios that could beused for simulating loadings into the urban drainage system. Insights as tothe homogeneity in spatial rainfall and its implications for modeling areprovided by considering partial pooling in the hierarchical Bayesianframework.

[学科分类] 妇产科学