Analysis of high streamflow extremes in climate change studies: how do we calibrate hydrological models?

[摘要] Climate change impact studies on hydrological extremesoften rely on hydrological models with parameters inferred throughcalibration procedures using observed meteorological data as input forcing.We show that this procedure can lead to a biased evaluation of theprobability distribution of high streamflow extremes when climate models areused. As an alternative approach, we introduce a methodology, coined“Hydrological Calibration of eXtremes” (HyCoX), in which the calibration ofthe hydrological model, as driven by climate model output, is carried outby maximizing the probability that the modeled and observed high streamflowextremes belong to the same statistical population. The application to theAdige River catchment (southeastern Alps, Italy) by means of HYPERstreamHS,a distributed hydrological model, showed that this procedure preservesstatistical coherence and produces reliable quantiles of the annual maximumstreamflow to be used in assessment studies.

[学科分类] 妇产科学